538
AXPZ20 KNHC 260403
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 138.8W, OR ABOUT 920 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 26/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO AROUND
34 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL
STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. FAUSTO IS
FORECAST MOVE WEST OF 140W ON SUN MORNING, HOWEVER, FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER FROM 18N TO 25N WEST OF 136W
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE BY
EARLY MON AFTERNOON AS FAUSTO CONTINUES TO WELL WEST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N
106.7W, OR ROUGHLY ABOUT 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO,
MEXICO AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. PEAK SEAS ARE TO 27
FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT GENEVIEVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING BETTOR
ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFYING. WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS NOTED IN NEARLY ALL OF THE QUADRANTS. THE IMAGERY REVEALS
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND ITS CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM IN THE
SW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
DENOTES AN OUTER BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N105W TO
07N108W, AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N108W TO 5.5N112W AND
TO 06N117W. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE
SUN. SWELLS GENERATED BY GENEVIEVE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUN NIGHT OR ON MON.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PORTION, AND OVER SOME
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF PANAMA, TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA, TO 09N84W, TO 06N90W AND TO 08N95W. IT
RESUME SOUTH OF HURRICANE GENEVIEVE NEAR 09.5N107W TO 08N114W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N120W AND TO 09N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 117W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, PRIMARILY NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 18N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY OF NOW HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF 18N ALONG WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT IN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENEVIEVE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
TO NEAR 13.0N 108.5W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
GUSTS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, TO NEAR 14.2N 110.5W SUN EVENING, TO
NEAR 15.3N 112.2W MON MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT
GUSTS 135 KT, TO NEAR 16.5N 113.7W MON EVENING, TO NEAR 17.3N
115.0W TUE MORNING, AND TO NEAR 18.1N 116.4W TUE EVENING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. GENEVIEVE IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.3N
119.7W WED EVENING. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. SWELLS FROM GENEVIEVE WILL IMPACT JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUTSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT
FOR ITS ENTRANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUILDING SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS TO 12 FT AND GREATER.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS ARE FORECAST. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 27N, WITH SEAS OF
7 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF
120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
ABOUT 04N BETWEEN 104W AND 131W IS PROVIDING FOR 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BETWEEN FAUSTO AND GENEVIEVE ALONG
A POSITION FROM 10N129W TO 01N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO NEAR TO 19.8N 140.5W
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, AND TO WELL WEST
OF THE AREA NEAR 20.7N 145.5W BY MON MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 13.0N 108.5W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS GUSTS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, TO NEAR 14.2N 110.5W SUN EVENING,
TO NEAR 15.3N 112.2W MON MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
110 KT GUSTS 135 KT, TO NEAR 16.5N 113.7W MON EVENING, TO NEAR
17.3N 115.0W TUE MORNING, AND TO NEAR 18.1N 116.4W TUE EVENING
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. GENEVIEVE IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.3N
119.7W WED EVENING.
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER WILL DECAY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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