242
WTPZ42 KNHC 260851
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
200 AM MST SUN JUL 26 2026
GENEVIEVE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBER
FROM TAFB WAS 4.5/77 KT AT 06Z, AND D-PRINT NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS
WERE AROUND 82 KT AT THE TIME, SO THE INTENSITY WAS INITIALIZED AT
80 KT FOR 06Z. SUBSEQUENT TO 06Z, A RAGGED EYE SHOWED UP ON IR
IMAGERY FOR A FEW FRAMES WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C COMPLETELY
SURROUNDING IT. HOWEVER, THE EYE AND CORE STILL SEEM TO BE
FLUCTUATING AND TRYING TO ORGANIZE, SO THE 09Z INTENSITY WILL ALSO
BE 80 KT.
GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, BUT A BIT
FASTER NOW (300 DEGREES AT 15 KT). THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED
BY STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER GENEVIEVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE’S SPEED
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN TO 7-8 KT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WHEN A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND THE LATEST HCCA (HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS) AND GDMI
(GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED BY 25 KT IN THE PAST 12 H AND 35 KT IN
THE PAST 24 H. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OF SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 30C AND A HUMID MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN A LOW-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE AND DTOPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 45 KT OF STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT 36 H. GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY, NOW SHOWING A PEAK OF 125 KT IN 36-48 H. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE HURRICANE REGIONAL
MODELS AND GDMI, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE HCCA. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER 48 H AS GENEVIEVE GRADUALLY ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH DAY 5.
THE WIND RADII WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, BASED ON A RECENT
ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 12.9N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.8N 109.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 14.9N 111.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.1N 113.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.1N 114.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 19.8N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 21.4N 125.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page