400
AXPZ20 KNHC 261034
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 139.8W, OR ABOUT 860 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 26/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND
34 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL
STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER.
FAUSTO WILL CROSS 140W SHORTLY, HOWEVER, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER FROM 18N TO 25N WEST OF 136W ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 8 TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY ON MON
AFTERNOON AS FAUSTO CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER WEST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W, OR ABOUT 450
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 26/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE UP TO AROUND 32 FT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT GENEVIEVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING BETTOR ORGANIZED AND
INTENSIFYING. WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED IN
NEARLY ALL OF THE QUADRANTS. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RAGGED
EYE AND BANDING FEATURES TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND IT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE, WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MARKS AN OUTER RAIN
BAND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N105W TO 07N108W TO 07N108W TO
06N114W AND TO 06.5N118W. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
GENEVIEVE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
AND WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SUN NIGHT OR ON MON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA TO 05N80W AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 07N84W TO 07N89W TO 06N91W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD
TO 07N93W AND TO 07N96W. IT RESUMES SOUTH OF HURRICANE GENEVIEVE
NEAR 10N107W TO 08N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO
08.5N123W TO 09N127W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, PRIMARILY NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 18N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY OF NOW HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF 18N ALONG WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT IN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENEVIEVE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 13.8N 109.8W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
100 KT GUSTS 120 KT, TO NEAR 14.9N 111.8W LATE TONIGHT, AND
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 16.1N 113.4W
MON AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT,
MOVE TO NEAR 17.1N 114.9W LATE MON NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.9N 116.3W TUE AFTERNOON, TO NEAR
18.5N 117.9W LATE TUE NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT AND CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
19.8N 121.3W LATE WED NIGHT. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS IN A GENERAL
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SWELLS FROM GENEVIEVE WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS FROM THE STATE OF GUERRERO NORTH TO OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. PULSING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA STARTING WED
ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON HURRICANE GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 27N, WITH SEAS OF
7 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF
120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
ABOUT 04N BETWEEN 104W AND 131W IS PROVIDING FOR 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BETWEEN FAUSTO AND GENEVIEVE ALONG
A POSITION FROM 10N130W TO 03N129.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE WEST OF 140W SOON
THIS MORNING, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, AND TO
WELL WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 20.7N 145.5W BY MON MORNING WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 13.8N 109.8W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT, TO NEAR 14.9N 111.8W LATE
TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
16.1N 113.4W MON AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 17.1N 114.9W LATE MON NIGHT, THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.9N 116.3W TUE
AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 18.5N 117.9W LATE TUE NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT AND CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.8N 121.3W LATE WED NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER WILL
DECAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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