720
WTPZ42 KNHC 261450
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
800 AM MST SUN JUL 26 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING. THE RAGGED EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO ABOVE 0 C AND
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
-70 C ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUND IT. THE 12Z TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS T5.0/90 KT, HOWEVER, OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 93-112 KT. BASED ON
THESE DATA AND THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, MAKING GENEVIEVE
A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 14 KT, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A FAST NORTHWESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GENEVIEVE
SLOWS DOWN EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OVER THE FIRST 24 H,
AND LIES WITHIN THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK DATA.
GENEVIEVE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, AND HAS STRENGTHENED BY 55 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 H. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 H. SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE AND DTOPS SHOW A HIGH CHANCES OF AT
LEAST 20 KT OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 H. THE
LATEST NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY LIES NEAR THE TOP OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE OUTPUT OF HCCA, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE. BY MIDWEEK, GENEVIEVE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, SUPPORTING STEADY WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 13.4N 109.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 14.4N 110.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 15.5N 112.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 20.2N 122.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 21.8N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
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