369
AXPZ20 KNHC 261806
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 141.1W AT 26/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
FAUSTO CENTER HAS MOVED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST CPHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/HFOTCPCP1.SHTML AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/HFOTCMCP1.SHTML FOR
MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 109.4W AT 26/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 115 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENEVIEVE IS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
GENEVIEVE IS THEN FORECAST TO START WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY GENEVIEVE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY REACH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 93.5W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90.5W AND
94.5W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 10N86W TO
09N99W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N116W TO 07.5N128W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO 09N AND EAST OF 80.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 115.5W AND
128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, PRIMARILY NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 18N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY
OF HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 17N ALONG WITH SEAS 8
TO 15 FT IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS
WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS NORTH OF 13N ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 96W AND
108W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE GENEVIEVE IS NEAR 13.4N 109.4W AT 8 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
963 MB. GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE TO 14.4N 110.8W THIS EVENING, 15.5N
112.5W MON MORNING, 16.6N 114.1W MON EVENING, 17.5N 115.5W TUE
MORNING, 18.2N 117.0W TUE EVENING, AND 18.7N 118.5W WED MORNING.
GENEVIEVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NW OR WNW EARLY THU.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT TIMES IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TODAY. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
STARTING WED ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AROUND MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 26N, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
12 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 04.5N
BETWEEN 103W AND 125W IS PROVIDING FOR 8 TO 9 FT SEAS OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BETWEEN FAUSTO AND GENEVIEVE ALONG
A POSITION FROM 12N132W TO 02N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO IS WEST OF 140W, MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, AND TO WELL WEST OF THE AREA
NEAR 20.7N 145.5W BY MON MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 13.8N
109.8W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120
KT, TO NEAR 14.9N 111.8W LATE TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 16.1N 113.4W MON AFTERNOON WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 17.1N
114.9W LATE MON NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 17.9N 116.3W TUE AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 18.5N 117.9W LATE TUE NIGHT
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT AND CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.8N 121.3W LATE WED NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER WILL
DECAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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