226
WTPZ42 KNHC 262037
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
200 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2026
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TODAY. A SYMMETRIC AND WARM
EYE HAS CLEARED OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND IS SURROUNDED BY
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A PARTIAL SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS
THAT BECAME AVAILABLE AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A
CONTRACTING RMW WITH PEAK WINDS OF 103 KT, SUPPORTING PREVIOUS
EVIDENCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE 1800 UTC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT, AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 115-122 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 295/12
KT, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. THE LATEST NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
REMAINS WITHIN THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK DATA.
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H AS
IT REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 C, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE AND DTOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM,
AND THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS NEAR THE TOP
OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AID. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY
FORECAST OF 130 KT IS CONSERVATIVE, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
BY MIDWEEK, GENEVIEVE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, SUPPORTING STEADY WEAKENING. GENEVIEVE IS NOW FORECAST
TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AT DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 13.9N 110.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.8N 111.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 18.3N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 18.9N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 20.4N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 22.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
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