885
WTPZ42 KNHC 270248
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
800 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2026
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRONOUNCED, CIRCULAR, WARMING EYE WITH A
DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE INNER CORE. GLM
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 126–142 KT.
THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T6.5/127
KT. BASED ON THESE VALUES AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 135 KT, AND GENEVIEVE IS A POWERFUL
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
TRACK. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE, AND THE PEAK INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED TO 140 KT. THEREAFTER, HARD-TO-PREDICT
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS, GENEVIEVE
IS FORECAST TO CROSS COOLER SSTS, ENCOUNTER DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, AND
ENTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS, GRADUAL TO STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR CONSENSUS AIDS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 300/12 KT. THE STORM IS
MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 14.7N 111.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 15.7N 112.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.1N 117.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 19.6N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 21.2N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.7N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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