362
WTPZ42 KNHC 270848
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
200 AM MST MON JUL 27 2026
GENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED A CLEAR AND WELL-DEFINED EYE FOR THE LAST
12 TO 18 H. DURING THAT TIME, EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE
AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS EXPANDED, LEADING TO
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE D-PRINT,
D-MINT, SATCON, AND ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALL
REACHED THE 137-142 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 03Z TO 05Z TIME-FRAME, WHEN GENEVIEVE'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION LOOKED MOST IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST TAFB ESTIMATE IS
7.0/140 KT. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS, GENEVIEVE IS UPGRADED TO A
140-KT CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. GENEVIEVE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE EAST
PACIFIC SINCE KRISTY OF 2024.
GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 310 DEGREES AT 11
KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HASN'T CHANGED. THE HURRICANE HAS
BEEN MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM 30C RIGHT NOW TO 28C IN 48 H, AND GENEVIEVE SHOULD CROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM JUST BEYOND 72 H. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD,
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AND STABILITY
GRADUALLY INCREASE, WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR GENEVIEVE TO EITHER MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, DEPENDING ON WHETHER IT
UNDERGOES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. MICROWAVE-BASED PROBABILITY
OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (MPERC) GUIDANCE INDICATES A 50/50
CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24
H. BEYOND 24 H, THE DECREASING SSTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO COMMENCE STEADY WEAKENING, WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING
AFTER 72 H WHEN THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, PERHAPS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING BEYOND 24 H. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 15.5N 112.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.3N 113.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 115.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.9N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 19.2N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 21.6N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 23.3N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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