187
WTPZ42 KNHC 271449
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
800 AM MST MON JUL 27 2026
AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 24-36 H, GENEVIEVE'S
IMPRESSIVE STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING. THE EYE
REMAINS CLEAR AND VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 20 C, HOWEVER,
THE IR SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BEGINNING TO WANE, WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES BELOW -70 C NO LONGER FULLY WRAPPING AROUND. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT GENEVIEVE IS IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, AS SUGGESTED BY AN EARLIER GMI PASS, AND SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED WHEN THIS OCCURS. THE 12Z
TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 6.5/127 KT, AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 130-143 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KT, STEERED BY A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA
CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 C,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NEXT 12 H OR SO. HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE-BASED PROBABILITY OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (MPERC) GUIDANCE INDICATES A 42 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT 24 H, AND SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AS
GENEVIEVE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THE MAJOR HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND
GRADUALLY DRIER MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LEADING TO STEADY
WEAKENING. BY 72 H, GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF 20N AND
ENCOUNTER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 C, LEADING TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING
TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 16.0N 113.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.8N 114.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.2N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 20.4N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 22.1N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 23.9N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
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