102
WTPZ42 KNHC 272050
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
200 PM MST MON JUL 27 2026
AFTER SOME WARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING, THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MAJOR HURRICANE
GENEVIEVE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH COLDER
CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLEAR, SYMMETRIC,
AND VERY WARM EYE. IT IS POSSIBLE GENEVIEVE COULD SOON UNDERGO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES TO DEFINITIVELY DETERMINE WHETHER ONE IS UNDERWAY.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 120-130 KT,
WITH THE 1800 UTC ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 6.5/127 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 310/11 KT. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 48 H OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
COLDER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY COULD OCCUR WITH GENEVIEVE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THIS WEEK, A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND GRADUALLY DRIER MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BY EARLY THURSDAY,
GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF 20N AND ENCOUNTER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26 C, LEADING TO A FASTER WEAKENING TREND FOR LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GENEVIEVE
TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 H, AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 113.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 116.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.7N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 19.3N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 21.0N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 22.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 24.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
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