199
WTPZ42 KNHC 280236
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
800 PM MST MON JUL 27 2026
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT WITH A MORE
CLOUD-FILLED, CIRCULAR EYE THAT IS COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BEEN
WARMING AND THINNING ALONG THE WESTERN EYEWALL. THERE ARE ALSO EARLY
SIGNS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY BE STARTING, MARKED BY
TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
CORE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM
111 TO 127 KT, WHILE THE MOST RECENT TAFB SUBJECTIVE CI DVORAK
ESTIMATE IS T6.5/127 KT. GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND THESE
LATEST ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 125 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/10 KT. GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24 TO 48 H, THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE FOREAST PERIOD, ANOTHER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING A FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO RESUME. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE LEFT IN THE EXTENDED,
AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATIONS IN DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE EYEWALL THIS EVENING, A TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE THAT COULD BE STARTING NOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
DRIER, MORE STABLE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS AND OVER COOLER SSTS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM NEAR 20N, A
FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING WILL ENSUE. AS A RESULT, THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GENEVIEVE IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 120 H, AS
MODEL-SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 17.1N 114.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.8N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.4N 117.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 20.2N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 21.1N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 22.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 24.1N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KELLY
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