949
WTPZ42 KNHC 281437
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE EYE OF GENEVIEVE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY RAGGED AND IS WOBBLING THIS
MORNING, AND THE TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE IS NOW BELOW 0 C. AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS OVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THE AFFECTS OF WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR AND SOME EROSION OF THE STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER, COLDER EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE
WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, DUE
TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS NOTED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INDICATING THAT A SMALL FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY MAY BE
OCCURRING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 6.0/115 KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 96-114 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 300/8 KT, GUIDED
BY A STOUT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER
THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD, AND A STRONG TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES
WITHIN THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE, AND IS CLOSEST TO HCCA AND
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE
MICROWAVE-BASED PROBABILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (MPERC)
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE OVER THE NEXT 24 H. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
INTO COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. ON THURSDAY,
GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTH OF 20N INTO AN AREA WITH COOL
WATERS LESS THAN 26 C, AND MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND CALLS FOR GENEVIEVE TO FALL
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 116.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.3N 117.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 20.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 21.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 24.9N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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