274
WTPZ42 KNHC 282037
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, RESULTING IN SOME EROSION OF
THE STRUCTURE OF GENEVIEVE. AN EARLIER SSMIS PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW
A MINOR AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS
EVIDENCED BY CHANGES IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE AND WARMING,
FOLLOWED BY COOLING, CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 5.5/102
KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 97-107 KT. GIVEN THESE
ESTIMATES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 105 KT.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 8 KT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
WESTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED SUIT,
AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE TO HCCA. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE, AND THE FORECAST IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND HCCA.
AFTER SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH TODAY, GENEVIEVE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY,
GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF 20N, WHERE SSTS FALL BELOW 26
C, RESULTING IN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GENEVIEVE WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL STORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, AND TRANSITIONING TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 18.0N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.0N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 21.1N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 21.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 23.3N 134.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 25.3N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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