216
WTPZ42 KNHC 290003
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO MODIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
HURRICANE AND UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER OF GENEVIEVE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS HAVE INCREASED FROM 105 TO 122 KT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
115 KT, AND GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
AGAIN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE REVISED CURRENT
INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ABOVE THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THEN TRENDS TOWARDS
THE CONSENSUS AIDS BEYOND DAY 2 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0000Z 18.2N 117.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.0N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 21.1N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 21.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 23.3N 134.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 25.3N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KELLY
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