795
WTPZ42 KNHC 291438
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 AM HST WED JUL 29 2026
GENEVIEVE IS FEELING THE IMPACTS OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, AN EARLIER AMSR-2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS INDICATED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
HAD STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND A NEW EYEWALL IS BECOMING
EVIDENT ON INFRARED AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PROCESS, WARMING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOTED TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE EYE, AND NEW CONVECTION ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE
ARE LEADING TO COLDER CLOUD TOPS LESS THAN -70 C. OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 81-99 KT, AND THE LATEST TAFB
ESTIMATE WAS 5.5/102 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A
POTENTIALLY GENEROUS 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 7 KT,
WEDGED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS GENERAL
MOTION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATER
THIS WEEKEND, GENEVIEVE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FALLS BETWEEN THE LATEST CORRECTED (HCCA) AND
SIMPLE (TVCN) CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS LED TO THE WEAKENING OF GENEVIEVE
THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
HURRICANE EXPERIENCES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ON THURSDAY,
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FURTHER DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 H, AND STILL REMAINS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON
SATURDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.2N 120.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 20.6N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.7N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 03/1200Z 26.9N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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