086
WTPZ42 KNHC 292042
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 AM HST WED JUL 29 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE HAS SLOWLY DETERIORATED
TODAY, AS COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30 C PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE CENTER. A 29/1352Z RCM-2 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR SCAN
REVEALED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAD OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND WAS NEARLY COMPLETE, AND SUBSEQUENTLY, THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS HAD EXPANDED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE NEWLY
FORMED EYEWALL ARE WARMING, DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 1800Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 5.0/90 KT,
AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 74-90 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA
AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KT, ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD. LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GENEVIEVE WILL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH, AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE, NEAREST TO THE CORRECTED (HCCA) CONSENSUS
AID.
GENEVIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, AS WELL AS GRADUALLY
COOLING WATERS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ON THURSDAY,
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WATERS COOLER THAN
26C, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FURTHER DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 H. GENEVIEVE
IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY, AND MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND, AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 19.2N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 19.7N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 21.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 22.0N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 22.7N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 23.5N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 25.4N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 03/1800Z 27.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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