898
WTPZ42 KNHC 300243
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 PM HST WED JUL 29 2026
GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE TIME
BEING. STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE SYMMETRIC AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 290/8 KT. THIS GENERAL DIRECTION
OF MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. SOME INCREASE IN
GENEVIEVE'S FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 DAYS AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 145W SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS, TVCN, AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL BENEATH THE CYCLONE WHILE IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AND GENEVIEVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR MASS. THEREFORE, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DROP
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO. BY THE WEEKEND, DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AND
RESULT IN GENEVIEVE DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 19.6N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 20.1N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 20.8N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 21.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.3N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.9N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 04/0000Z 28.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
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