489
WTPZ42 KNHC 300835
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 PM HST WED JUL 29 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
DEGRADED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -70 C, WHICH HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING,
LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 70 TO 80 KT. BASED ON THE SATELLITE DATA
AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 KT. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A
MODEST INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER WEST. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS FORMING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH THE
CYCLONE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY. BY
THIS WEEKEND, PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE DEEP CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH,
RESULTING IN GENEVIEVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 H. THE UPDATED
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING TREND AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 20.2N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 20.7N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 21.5N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 22.1N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 22.9N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 23.8N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 24.5N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.6N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 29.1N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS
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