764
WTPZ42 KNHC 301439
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 AM HST THU JUL 30 2026
GENEVIEVE IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS AND RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR THIS MORNING. INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS EAST OF THE CENTER, AND THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, AN EARLIER
GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A COMPACT, FULLY INTACT AND CLOSED
CIRCULATION, THOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING RAGGED AND LOPSIDED.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DECLINING AND RANGE
FROM 61-69 KT, WHILE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS
4.5/77 KT. THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER PACE
NEAR 13 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HELPS STEER THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND REMAINS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAREST TO HCCA AND
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS OF LESS THAN 26C,
WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. IN
ADDITION, DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM OVER THE COMING
DAYS, AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 H, SHOWING GENEVIEVE FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
LATER TODAY. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE CYCLONE MAY STRUGGLE
TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 72 H. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST INTENSITY LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 20.6N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 128.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 23.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 30.2N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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