189
WTPZ42 KNHC 302033
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 AM HST THU JUL 30 2026
GENEVIEVE IS WEAKENING TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER, AND THE EYE IS
OBSCURED BY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -50 C. AN EARLIER
RCM-2 PASS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED EYE, BUT THE WEAKENING
HURRICANE MAINTAINS AN OTHERWISE GENERALLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, RANGING
FROM 57-67 KT. GIVEN THE DEGRADED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 65 KT.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
TODAY, GUIDED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 72 H OR SO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. AND
EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW, STEERING GENEVIEVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS, CLOSE TO HCCA AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND.
THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED INTO COOL WATERS AND IS EXPERIENCING DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GENEVIEVE MAY STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND, AND THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H, AND A REMNANT
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 20.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 21.2N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 21.9N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 22.7N 132.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 23.6N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 24.4N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.4N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 03/1800Z 27.7N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 30.9N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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