161
WTPZ42 KNHC 310835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 PM HST THU JUL 30 2026
GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT
STEADILY ERODES ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT, AND THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS FORMING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE UPDATED NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS TRACK,
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING TREND AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 21.7N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.2N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 23.9N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 24.7N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 25.5N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 26.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z 29.2N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z 32.6N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS
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