787
WTPZ42 KNHC 311443
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2026
GENEVIEVE IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE, WITH MOST OF THEM SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY NEAR 50 KT.
THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/13 KT.
A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR
SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO
THE RIDGE BREAKING IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FORMING NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 140-160W. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS AGAIN ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE IS
APPROACHING A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
25C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WATER
TEMPERATURE UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 18 H OR SO.
BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PAUSE IN THE
WEAKENING FROM 12-24 H, FOLLOWED BY RESUMED STEADY WEAKENING AS THE
SYSTEM AGAIN ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND IS AFFECTED BY INCREASING
SHEAR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 60 HR. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER
THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST DURING
GENEVIEVE'S PASSAGE OVER THE WARMER WATER, THE CYCLONE COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 22.1N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 22.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 23.4N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 26.1N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z 29.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z 33.3N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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