746
WTPZ42 KNHC 312034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2026
GENEVIEVE REMAINS COMPRISED OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. A SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR OVERPASS A FEW HOURS
AGO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS AND
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/14 KT.
A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. AFTER THAT, A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE
TO THE RIDGE BREAKING IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FORMING NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 140-160W. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME SPREAD AFTER 72 H, WITH THE UKMET, HWRF, AND HAFS MODELS
SHOWING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION, WHILE THE GFS, ECMWF, THE
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA), AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDMI) SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. THESE LATTER MODELS
ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THEIR GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD, AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE SHOULD
PASS NEAR OR OVER A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 25C DURING THE NEXT 12-18 H. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD SLOW THE ONGOING WEAKENING, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 H. A STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME AS THE CYCLONE AGAIN MOVES OVER DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN CALLS
FOR THE CYCLONE TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 60 H AS THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST DURING GENEVIEVE'S PASSAGE OVER THE
WARMER WATER, THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 22.3N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 23.6N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.4N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 25.4N 140.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 26.4N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 27.6N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 30.3N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 33.7N 148.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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