124
WTPZ42 KNHC 010234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2026
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE CONVECTION IN THE INNER-CORE
OF THE CYCLONE AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR MIXING INTO
THE CORE. AN OSCAT PASS FROM 2043 UTC HAD A PEAK WIND RETRIEVAL OF
40 KT. THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO TREND
GRADUALLY DOWNWARD, WITH A RANGE OF 33-50 KT, AND THE MOST RECENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS CI 3.0/45 KT. THUS, BASED ON ALL OF
THE CURRENT GIVEN DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KT
THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/13 KT.
A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT, A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
RIDGE BREAKING IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF GENEVIEVE. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 72 H, IT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THUS, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE EVOLVING TRACK GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 H, THIS
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE LARGER SPREAD, THOUGH OVERALL, ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE WEAKENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT A STORM WITH A LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND REMAINS THE SAME. GENEVIEVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C, WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WEAKENING RATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 H TO 36 H. ONCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF
EVEN COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES, GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT AROUND 48 H. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT
GENEVIEVE COULD LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SOONER, RESULTING IN
THE STORM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THIS
ADVISORY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 22.6N 131.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.9N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.8N 138.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 03/1200Z 26.8N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 27.8N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 30.7N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page