614
WTPZ42 KNHC 010845
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GENEVIEVE’S CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. A 0551Z
ASCAT-B PASS, HOWEVER, SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED AND SAMPLED A PEAK WIND OF 40 KT NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 280/11 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SOME CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DEPICTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA).
GUIDANCE FAVORS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS GENEVIEVE REMAINS IN A
DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING, WITH GENEVIEVE EXPECTED
TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 22.6N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 23.1N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 23.9N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 25.0N 139.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 26.0N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 03/1800Z 27.0N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 28.1N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 30.4N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS
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