207
WTPZ42 KNHC 011435
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 AM HST SAT AUG 01 2026
GENEVIEVE’S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO, AND THERE IS NOW ONLY A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -30C, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, A 1032 UTC AMSR-2 PASS INDICATES THAT A RELATIVELY LARGE
AREA OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS, AND IS WRAPPED
HALFWAY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
THE SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS
DECREASED TO 2.5/35 KT. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDT, D-PRINT, D-MINT
AND SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 37-42 KT. GIVEN THE
LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BROUGHT DOWN TO
40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/12 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY MONDAY, A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER LOW/TROUGH THAT
WILL BE LOCATED OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GENEVIEVE. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 3, SO THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING 25-26C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS), WHILE UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY
DRY, STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER SSTS OVER THE NEXT 18 H OR SO (BELOW 24C BY THAT TIME).
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS (15-20 KT) IN 24-36 H WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING,
AND GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 H. THEREAFTER, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING JUST AFTER 96 H, AS
DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 24.5N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 25.5N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/1200Z 26.4N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0000Z 27.4N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 28.4N 145.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 31.1N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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