453
WTPZ42 KNHC 012032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 01 2026
THE ORGANIZATION OF GENEVIEVE HASN’T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 6
H. GOES-18 DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS
2.5/35 KT, AND RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM ABOUT 35-40 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT, WHICH IS
UNCHANGED FROM 6 H AGO. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. BY MONDAY, A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GENEVIEVE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA). THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, SO THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
GENEVIEVE IS STARTING TO ENTER COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NOW, WITH SSTS BETWEEN 24-25C. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH SSTS
LOWER THAN 24C IN ABOUT 12H. GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DRY, STABLE AIR.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS (15-20 KT) BY 24 H WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING,
AND GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST
TROPICAL BY 36 H. THEREAFTER, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN
DOWN WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY 96 H, AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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