345
WTPZ42 KNHC 020237
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2026
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO AN AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T2.5/35 KT, AND RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM ABOUT 35-40 KT. THESE ESTIMATES ARE
LARGELY THE SAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY CYCLE, AND WITH THE STEADY
SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY OF THE
TROPICAL STORM AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT, WHICH IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY MONDAY, GENEVIEVE WILL
DECELERATE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ADVISORY, EXCEPT WE SHOW A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION BEYOND 60 H. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID (HCCA).
GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY OVER 23-24 DEG C SSTS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO
STAY WITHIN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM IS DRY. THE CURRENT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THIS INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD HERALD THE DEGENERATION
OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THEN
DISSIPATING BY 96 H. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS
NOTED THAT GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO RETAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR SOME
TIME AFTER IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 23.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 24.3N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 25.2N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1200Z 26.1N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 26.9N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 27.7N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 28.7N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER MAHONEY/PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
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