759
WTPZ42 KNHC 020831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2026
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANY DEEP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER. DESPITE THE LOSS OF ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY,
A ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0531Z SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 40-45
KT, A BIT ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THUS, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT. THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY BUMP
IN STRENGTH WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO COLD WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR. ANY DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN 24 H, AND POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS
SHOWN AT THAT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS MADE WITH ALL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE
PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CYCLONE
IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
MONDAY, GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A LESS SHARP
POLEWARD TURN, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LAST ONE, A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE RECENT
GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACKER AND NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 23.9N 137.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 25.4N 141.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1800Z 26.1N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/0600Z 26.7N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 27.3N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 28.0N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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