269
WTPZ42 KNHC 021438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
500 AM HST SUN AUG 02 2026
GENEVIEVE IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING, AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED. A RECENT AMSR-2 PASS INDICATED THAT THE VORTEX
WAS TILTED WITH HEIGHT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE TILT, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT, ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTABLY WEAKER ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 31-48 KT, WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE WAS 2.5/35 KT. GIVEN
THESE ESTIMATES AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT,
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 36 H OR SO, BEFORE GENEVIEVE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOWS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE,
LIKELY PROHIBITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY, AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE FORECAST LIES
WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 24.5N 138.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 25.2N 140.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z 26.0N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/0000Z 26.7N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 27.3N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 28.0N 145.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 28.6N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/HAGEN
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