599
ABPZ20 KNHC 101133
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
CENTRAL PACIFIC (CP93):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY MID-WEEK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC:
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO:
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, ENDING ITS CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
FORECASTER PASCH/PIERCE
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