974
AXPZ20 KNHC 101434
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 111W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 129W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 03N82W TO 07N90W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 09N109W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES
FROM 09N109W TO 13N129W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
113W, AND FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE W OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
WED. ELSEWHERE, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A FETCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLIES WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH LATE TODAY. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURES
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS
COVER THESE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST W OF 125W LIKELY THROUGH TUE. A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
AL
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