567
AXPZ20 KNHC 110319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W NORTH OF 06N THROUGH
PANAMA, MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 113W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N83W TO 08N110W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM
11N113W TO 15N120W TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W, AND FROM 08N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. MODERATE SEAS
ARE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE AREA
AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURES
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND
WEST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS COVER THESE WATERS. CONVERGENCE WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
CHRISTENSEN
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