353
AXPZ20 KNHC 111501
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W NORTH OF 06N THROUGH
COSTA RICA, MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 115W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N111W TO 15N125W TO
BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W, FROM 03N TO 18N BETWEEN
110W AND 120W, AND FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE
AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS,
PERSIST ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. THE TELICA VOLCANO IN NICARAGUA LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 86.8W
IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH THAT REACHES OFFSHORE TO
NEAR 12N88W. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS.
IN THE EVENT MARINERS ENCOUNTER VOLCANIC ASH, THEY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BY
CALLING (305)229-4425.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND
WEST OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 135W. ROUGH SEAS COVER THESE WATERS.
CONVERGENCE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
AL
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