252
AXPZ20 KNHC 112001
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC: A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W NORTH OF 06N THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 116W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 06N102W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 15N137.5W TO BEYOND 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 87W AND
109W, FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W, FROM 12N TO 19N
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W, AND FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS,
PERSIST ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS TO
THESE WATERS SUN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TELICA VOLCANO IN NICARAGUA,
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 86.8W, IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH
THAT REACHES OFFSHORE TO NEAR 12N88W. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS. IN THE EVENT MARINERS ENCOUNTER
VOLCANIC ASH, THEY ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BY CALLING 305-229-4425.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF
125W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND WEST OF 135W. ROUGH SEAS COVER THESE WATERS.
CONVERGENCE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS, AS
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
AL
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