420
WTNT43 KNHC 121451
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026
300 PM GMT WED AUG 12 2026
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WE HAVE
BEEN MONITORING WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED
AN AREA OF 35-40 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND
EXPOSED CENTER, WITHIN THE REGION OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING,
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACHIEVED TROPICAL
STORM STATUS, AND IT LIKELY REACHED THAT THRESHOLD EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET TO 40 KT.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AROUND 22 KT OVER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 C. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH, AND A RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. CRISTOBAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL
NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS LIE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ARE CLOSEST TO THE HCCA SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 36.7N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 37.4N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 38.5N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI
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