715
AXPZ20 KNHC 121507
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP99):
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HAWAII AND THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ENCOUNTER LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88/89W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 120W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N EAST OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO THU, THEN AGAIN ON THU NIGHT. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS,
PERSIST ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR, WITH LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE
REGION STARTING THU NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND EP99 AND PTC
ONE-C JUST WEST OF 140W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL COVER THE
WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 106W AND 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS, AS
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF
05N BETWEEN 96W AND 130W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AL
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