722
WTNT43 KNHC 122035
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026
900 PM GMT WED AUG 12 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
TODAY. APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE SLOWLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SPAN A WIDE RANGE, FROM 27-47 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY, PLACING SOME
WEIGHT ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING EASTWARD AT AROUND 090/18 KT, STEERED BY A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHILE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.
THESE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLOW, STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND ARE CLOSEST TO THE HCCA SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 37.2N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.8N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 39.6N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/PASCH
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