404
AXPZ20 KNHC 122121
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C IS NEAR 14.7N
142.6W AT 2100 UTC, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THE 18Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE- FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 139W AND 140W. A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA, AND THE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP99):
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HAWAII AND THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD STILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 121W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N104W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N104W TO 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 08N EAST OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO THU, THEN AGAIN ON THU NIGHT. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E GAP WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PERSIST
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR, WITH LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE
REGION STARTING THU NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON PTC ONE-E, AND
ASSOCIATED GALES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS, AS WELL AS FOR EP99.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND PTC ONE-C JUST
WEST OF 140W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, OVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO
18N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND EP99 IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND
137W. ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL COVER THE WATERS S OF 05N
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE ON EP99, AND GALES ASSOCIATED WITH PTC ONE-C. ELSEWHERE,
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 96W AND 130W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AL
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