851
WTNT43 KNHC 130233
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026
300 AM GMT THU AUG 13 2026
COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE
TAKING THEIR TOLL ON CRISTOBAL. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, AS WELL AS THE LATEST DPRINT AND
DMINT ESTIMATES, ARE NEAR 30 KT, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE STILL A BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BROUGHT DOWN TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AS A COMPROMISE OF THE
DATA.
BASED ON THE INCREASINGLY HARSH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT THE
STORM IS ENTERING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, CRISTOBAL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION
WILL MAKE A COMEBACK. THEREFORE, THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CRISTOBAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H.
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 075/14 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 H, AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 37.7N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 38.7N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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