429
WTPZ43 KNHC 130251
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2026
SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE INDICATED THAT
INVEST 99E HAS HAD A CLOSED, WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THAT
TIME, INCLUDING A RECENT OSCAT PASS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP
AND DOWN OVER THE PAST DAY, BUT HAS RECENTLY BEEN PERSISTING
WELL-ENOUGH FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX FROM TAFB IS 1.5/25 KT,
BUT WIND VECTORS FROM OSCAT, AS WELL AS THE ASCAT PASS FROM
YESTERDAY, SUGGEST THAT IT LIKELY HAS WINDS NEAR 30 KT, AND THAT IS
THE INITIAL NHC INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300
DEGREES AT 6 KT. AS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. PULLS
AWAY AND SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT FEELS A TUG FROM
LOWER PRESSURES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST LIES NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF, THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS (HCCA) MODEL. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS A LITTLE
GREATER THAN AVERAGE, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR,
MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND OUTFLOW
FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C. THEREFORE, VERY LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IN 12-24 HOURS, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY DECREASE
SOME AS THAT TROUGH PULLS AWAY, MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AT THE SAME TIME, AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY NOT
BE MUCH LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 H. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 H, BUT GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW EVEN SOONER
THAN FORECAST. AFTER THAT, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.9N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.0N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z 15.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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