732
WTPZ43 KNHC 130839
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
200 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
A RECENT ASCAT PASS HAS SHOWN THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 35 KTS. WHILE THE MOST
RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX HAS A FINAL T 2.0 WITH A MAX WINDS OF 30
KT. DPRINT HAS A WIND MAXIMUM AROUND 39 KT WHILE THE ADT AND AIDT
ARE CLOSE TO 32 AND 33 KT RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE ASCAT, THE INITIAL NHC INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT.
AS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. PULLS AWAY AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT FEELS A TUG FROM LOWER
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT
GENERALLY STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND CLOSE
TO HCCA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE STILL HAS A LARGE
SPREAD, THE TRACK CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR,
MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND OUTFLOW
FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C. THEREFORE, AT BEST ONLY
MINOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY, AND THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. MODELS FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE AND THAT THE STORM MAY WELL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN 48 H. INDEED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IT COULD A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE REMNANTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE IN A
FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 18.1N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 17.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.5N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 15.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z 14.9N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page