606
AXPZ20 KNHC 131453
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1450 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 131.9W AT 13/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 13 FT, OR 4 M. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE. A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS HERNAN ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 125W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 08N101W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N101W TO 10N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND
101W, AND FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH SW GAP WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN RETURN
FRI THROUGH MON. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR, WITH LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE
REGION STARTING THU NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE AREA IMPACTED BY HERNAN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE, HERNAN, AND NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM LALA IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND
ROUGH SEAS, FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ROUGH SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL COVER THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HERNAN WILL MOVE TO 17.6N 132.0W THIS EVENING,
17.1N 132.1W FRI MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 16.5N
132.7W FRI EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND
130W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AL
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