768
AXPZ20 KNHC 132105
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 131.9W AT 13/2100
UTC, MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 13 FT, OR 4 M. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE.
HERNAN IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
GRADUAL WEAKENING TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY, INCREASING DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W TO 07N102W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 10N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND
104W, FROM 02N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W, AND FROM 00N TO 10N
BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW GAP WINDS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PERSIST
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR, WITH LARGE SOUTHERLY
SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND FRI, THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE AREA IMPACTED BY HERNAN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE, HERNAN, AND TROPICAL STORM LALA IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ROUGH SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL COVER THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 97W AND 122W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HERNAN WILL MOVE TO 16.8N 132.0W FRI MORNING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 16.2N 132.4W FRI AFTERNOON,
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 15.9N 133.6W SAT MORNING, 15.4N
135.1W SAT AFTERNOON, 15.0N 136.9W SUN MORNING, AND DISSIPATE SUN
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST
TO BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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