652
WTPZ43 KNHC 140232
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
800 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HERNAN HAS FALLEN APART DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER,
THOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE WINDS FROM AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR, THOUGH IT COULD BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WARMER WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS. MODELS SUGGEST NO DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER 24
HOURS, SO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED THEREAFTER.
HERNAN REMAINS HEADED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
BETWEEN TROPICAL STORMS HERNAN AND LALA. HERNAN SHOULD TURN
GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKENING AND THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC
HIGH PROVIDING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND A BIT SOUTH OF THE LAST CYCLE, AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS,
CLOSE TO THE TIME THE REMNANTS ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.8N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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