379
AXPZ20 KNHC 140838
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 131.9W AT 14/0900
UTC, MOVING SOUTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 13 FT OR 4 M. HERNAN IS A VERY SHEERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED BETWEEN 180 NM AND 510 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
HERNAN. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON FRI. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HERNAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRI AND A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY SAT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 97W NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74.5W TO 09.5N85W TO 07N102W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 10.5N112W TO 07.5N125W TO 09N130W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W, FROM 02N TO
05.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 101W, FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND
107W, FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W, AND WITHIN 360 NM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 130W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW GAP WINDS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. NW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
NEARSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SW WINDS IN THE THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. PULSES OF FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, NEAR GALE-FORCE OVERNIGHT AT TIMES,
ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO
N WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS BUT
OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS MAY FRESHEN SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ROUGH SEAS FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON AND
TUE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE AREA IMPACTED BY HERNAN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE, HERNAN, AND TROPICAL STORM LALA IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 126W AND 137W. ROUGH SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL COVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
127W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 100W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 15.9N 132.4W THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AND MOVE TO 15.5N 133.9W SAT MORNING, 15.2N 135.8W SAT
AFTERNOON, 15.1N 137.8W SUN MORNING, 15.1N 140.1W SUN AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING, WHEN REMNANT ROUGH SEAS SHOULD ALSO
SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN SOUTH OF 02N BETWEEN 95W AND
125W THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO
BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 97W, AND IN THE NORTHWEST WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REGIONALLY TIGHT.
LEWITSKY
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