958
WTPZ43 KNHC 140838
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
1100 PM HST THU AUG 13 2026
ALTHOUGH HERNAN REMAINS A CONVECTION-LESS SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, RECENT SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. THUS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/4 KT, WITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN IT AND TROPICAL STORM LALA TO
THE WEST. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HERNAN SHOULD TURN
GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD AS THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDES A MORE WESTWARD STEERING
CURRENT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE GUIDANCE OR FORECAST
TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN 12-24 H, AND BASED ON
THIS PREMISE THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN DECAYING TO A REMNANT LOW AT 24 H
AND INTO A TROUGH BY 72 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 16.1N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 15.2N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 15.1N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z 15.1N 140.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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