859
WTPZ43 KNHC 141439
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
500 AM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
AFTER BEING DEVOID OF CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW OCCURRING NORTH AND EAST
OF THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATED ESTABLISHED BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
WITH LESS-DEFINED ORGANIZATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER,
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25-41 KT.
GIVEN THESE ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS CONTINUED ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED BETWEEN HERNAN AND TROPICAL STORM LALA,
WHICH IS APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE STORM'S FARTHER SOUTH INITIAL POSITION, THE
LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
DESPITE MOVING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HERNAN CONTINUES
TO CONTEND WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT, CAUSING GRADUAL
WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A CLOSED CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HERNAN TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN 24 H AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 72 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 14.9N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z 15.1N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI
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