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AXPZ20 KNHC 141527
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 132.1W AT 14/1500
UTC, MOVING SOUTH AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 12 FT OR 4 M. HERNAN HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE. HERNAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TODAY AND A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY SATURDAY.PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 97W NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COSTA RICA AT 09N83W TO
08N104W. THE ITCZ BEGINS THERE AND EXTENDS TO 12N128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 04N
EAST OF 83W, FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 91W-107W, FROM 03N-15N BETWEEN
113W-129W, AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 125W-129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEA ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, 4-6 FT OVER
THE REMAINING PACIFIC WATERS, AND 1-4 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS ARE OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE 3-7 FT IN
SW SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 04N
EAST OF 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LARGE S SWELL SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS ON MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 20N112W TO 14N100W. ASIDE
FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HERNAN, THE TRADES NORTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND S TO SW WINDS ARE
ALSO MODERATE OR WEAKER. LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N WEST OF 95W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 6-7
FT IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 125W-129W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HERNAN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 15.4N 133.0W THIS EVENING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
15.1N 134.5W SAT MORNING, 15.0N 136.6W SAT EVENING, 14.9N 138.9W
SUN MORNING, 15.1N 141.1W SUN EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD.
LANDSEA
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