292
WTPZ43 KNHC 142035
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
AFTER CONTINUING ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, HERNAN HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAS SINCE WANED, AND DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, NEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. A MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING DEPICTED
AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH POOR DEFINITION ON ITS WESTERN SIDE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SINCE
THIS MORNING AND RANGE FROM 25-34 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KT, WHICH MAY BE SOMEWHAT
GENEROUS.
DESPITE ITS NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION THIS MORNING, HERNAN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
ERODE HERNAN'S STRUCTURE, DESPITE DECREASING WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY, ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE, ALTHOUGH A CLOSED
CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
WEAKENS HERNAN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 H AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH BY 72 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.5N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 15.4N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 15.5N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI
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